In the Mind of a Mad Man

Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Summary of The Web Based Client Desktop

The Biggest Change Since DOS Went to Windows 3.1

The migration from license to subscription base and offline to on-line application suites will be the greatest change in 06-07. The powerful portable device demand has exponentially increased and will be the second half of the puzzle. Thanks to dynamic programming elements from AJAX, which allows information to be changed, edited, saved and deleted without having to reload the page each time.

The Battle
The New Battle will be over the Internet not the OS on the computer. The battle will be over subscription or use on the web not on the physical computer.

What's Out There:
There are many different web applications out there

desktop solutions:
www.protopage.com
www.pageflakes.com-this is perhaps the greatest example
The only better is one that integrates IM capability like

social networking apps:
blogger
writely
word press
flickr
meetup
linkedin
My Space

office products:
office live
zoho writer
Open Office will release a web version soon

Email products:
gmail
google calendar

There are also subscription based services
iTunes
the new Windows Media Player with MTV services

There are great mobile devices out there:
ipod
UMPC

Microsoft's arsenal
Verizon ties
WMA proprietary format-owns wireless content
MTV content delivery service in windows media player
UMPC www.umpc.com
My Space
Office Live
Microsofts Gdrive competitor-update 4.20
http://www.microsoft-watch.com/article2/0,2180,1951172,00.asp


The Goal: Create an entire online environment that is independent of a platform (OS) in which a user Has a desktop, an office suite, email, and media content delivery system, and many other web applications through one subscription service or a combination of them.
with different elements similar to page flakes
IM access-which can already be done
social networking access

Microsoft's Plan of Attack


Microsoft and Verizon
Using Verizon's 3g broadband wireless service MSFT can deliver the services to all the devices on the nation's largest network including cell phones, PDAs, UMPCs, and their ipod killer (could be a special breed of UMPC).
The services will be web applications that include:
a desktop environment much like page flakes or protopage:

Quick access to web content including:
MSN messenger
Encarta
Money
My Space
MTV Windows Media Player-new content delivery system
Documents and files hosted online
Microsoft Gdrive Competing Solution
Online Applications Including:
Office Live

Evidence of Microsoft's Move

Bill Gates "The Future is the Internet" speech.
He was speaking of this subscription based world of web client applications and environments. This is how Microsoft plans to "know what you're watching" and deliver content based advertising.

Launch of the UMPC and iPod Killer News
Microsoft has revealed the Ultra Mobile PC's better performance than a PDA but more mobile than a laptop and always connected. This will the launch pad for this new environment and application suite.This became apparent when the specifications for some of these devices included "low performance" CPUs from VIA clocked in at 900mhz and yet plenty of RAM. The web application environment will not require too much hardware muscle and Microsoft wanted to give it just enough to control what the UMPC can do as they have done with Windows Mobile and Pocket PC OS. The low power units ensure long battery life and the software requirements will be low in order to accommodate bandwidth limitations of the wireless world and other factors involved. Microsoft has also released news that they are developing an ipod competitor and with their new media player and MTV combo they are clearly aiming at itunes.

The combination with Verizon and MTV Content
The wireless networks are vital to this new move. Microsoft teamed up with the largest wireless network for this reason, so users can access the content everywhere. The MTV and media player coverage on the cell phone ensures that users get hooked on the WMA format and are forced to use the new content delivery system.

The News Of Microsoft Creating A G-Drive Competitor
Microsoft is developing a virtual drive similar to Google's Gdrive. This certainly supports where they are going with this.
http://www.microsoft-watch.com/article2/0,2180,1951172,00.asp

Things That We Have Yet to See from Microsoft:
Microsoft's Super Secret Web Desktop Environment
-Don't know exactly what it will look like
-Fully Developed?

Google is Leading The Way
Google has an arsenal in store already and closer to release than Microsoft and will surely be the first to launch their suite as it will cripple Microsoft's effectiveness in the market and be made available for free. Google will use wifi networks that they are establishing to deliver a better broadband delivery system that can overcome the limitations of bandwidth issues on cellphones. They will lead the way because they make their money not on the subscriptions but on the user information and statistics used to create better marketing methods.

Google Bringing together:
Google Mail
Calendar-already out there
web design tool-I have seen beta shots of this product
blogger
google maps
google local
google earth
3d products
office products

Evidence of Google Move

Present Suite of Tools

Size of Gmail
Gmail is growing to 3 Gigabytes and at last we know why. The user account will host all of the data, documents, files, media, etc.

WiFi in SF
Google is really pushing their free wifi projects so they can deliver these services to the masses and users do not have a reason not to use their services.

Rumor of Google OS
The rumors and photos of Google versions of Linux are probably works in progress at creating a minimalist environment that can be delivered over the web. It won't be a traditional operating system alone, it will be hosted on the web.Their purchase of the 3d design software may also hint at a new web application or a 3d environment.


Things We Have Yet to See from Google

-Media delivery system that is fully developed.
Yes they have Google Video, but music subscription service has yet to be revealed but I am sure we will see it soon.
-Office Suite
I've seen screenshots and heard some things from credible sources

Trends to Watch
The massive purchase of social networking sites and applications
This is the glue that brings it all together. These products have changed the way we live and there are many small start-ups bringing it to the next level-

If you would like specific recommendations of potential investment targets you will have to call and arrange a consultation.

Nicholas McGill
530-400-0539

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