The Big Web War-The Operating System Has Evolved and is on the WebDisclaimer: This article is aimed to inform-the implications are great, this will represent a complete change in the world of computing which has positive and negative connotations. I try not to take sides, but this is the future as I see it, and to say the least it will be great, ( not good great but great as in epic and influential). This is the first of many essays that will assume the market will go this way. You heard it here first from a 20 year old snot nose IT consultant and college student. Feel free to add in your comments and contribute your evidence to back it up.
Microsoft's Next Move
The Present- A Massive King of the Hill Game for Internet Services.
Google has a lead but has been unaware of what Microsoft has in store. The competitors understand that they are not in a platform war but a web war, Apple's solution in this fray has yet to be presented, more research is needed, although I possibly unfairly kind of treat the company and Mac crowd like society treats a mentally handicapped person (you feel sorry for them, empathize, do what you can and generally kind of ignore them as it pains you to watch). Someone should comment and fill in the future Mac Solution here, a piece of the puzzle that I don't have time (or the fisher-price experience required to operate) to look into the world through the eyes of(a four year old) Mac. Sorry for the roasts, but they live off of Win-bashing-it's their turn.
The Future-
The largest future competitors will be AOL who has a lot of experience of delivering a handicapped version of the Internet and Internet services to the masses, Google who probably reads my email for new ideas-a little arrogant but I wouldn't be surprised. Google has created an entire web experience and will bring it all together to compete with Microsoft.
Investors: Watch the future of AJAX and competitive web programming languages to come. Pay attention to where this new programming method goes- this is where to put your money so that you win no matter who comes out on top. There are far too many players to predict a winner right now but stay in touch.
The Delay of Vista, Working Out the Issues, or Strategic Move?
I believe that Microsoft is going to holding back its next software line up for a massive release. A massive offensive aimed at stomping out the ipod, itunes, Google services, and Apple appeal all together. The next move from Microsoft will be a full scale assault aimed at switching the world over to their new system-a simultaneous launch of iPod killer hardware, UMPC combined with a new content delivery subscription system.
I think most experts would agree with me that the future is in technological liquidity, and the most liquid, go anywhere, do anything on any platform solutions are Web 2.0 applications and portable devices go hand in hand. Ultra Mobile connected devices will not need to waste storage capacity on software solutions. Instead they will rely on web 2.0 applications for all user needs be it office, utility, gaming, audio, video or any other need.
This is how Microsoft will survive their own Vista Release. There will be many users who recognize the limitations in PDL (personal digital liquidity) that Vista offers, the heavy DRM solutions that are aimed to please media manufacturers, and restrict and control user behavior, forcing them to use Microsoft services such as Media Player, their MTV music solution, and the rest of the new line-up from Microsoft. The smart and corporate users who switch to alternative OS will still want and need Microsoft Functionality, and they will get it from the broadband version of a web 2.0 suite from Microsoft that will deliver all their services over the Internet for a subscription fee.
It will matter very little what platform you run. Whether you run XP, Vista, or OS-X on a Mac or PC, as you can do either, thanks to Intel. If you take a look at Microsoft's Hardware build up lately- I'm sure you will see a lot of movement to the web. They are gearing up the back end of this massive service launch. They are stacking up servers and equipment to backup this huge move. The users will no longer have such heavy hardware requirements, which will upset the CPU manufacturers I'm sure.
Microsoft's Master Plan- The Move That Will Start All Out War
Imagine paying $10-$20 or even $50 a month on a all inclusive package, no more licensing nonsense. Imagine paying nothing and tolerating ads like the good ol' days of free ISPs. There is not enough money in licensing software. Software piracy is great,err, I mean, is a great threat to Microsoft and a subscription base for their products is their solution. This mindset is backed up by their validation tools, genuine product detection and authentication. They will integrate their products with the web even more intricately than Adobe's creative product line-up. They are trending this way already.
For example, take a look at Microsoft's One-Care solution and their attempts at entering the anti-virus and malware domain. This is a test market for Microsoft. It is a way to work out the bugs in their content delivery system. Microsoft is big on advertising and has come up with a content based solution and how to deliver it. This will be the response to Google's ad sense campaigns
The Tools
Hardware:
Wireless Devices:
PDA:
UMPCs
Watch the video
http://umpc.com/default.aspx
Microsoft has promised these devices to be an extension of the media center for these devices.
iPod Killer (release with vista I imagine)-
The release of Windows Media Player 11 that was co developed by MTV backs this up.
XP and Vista to get new Video Player
http://news.com.com/2100-1016_3-6061520.html?part=rss&tag=6061520&subj=news
I think this is yet another reason for the Vista delay. Microsoft may create their own UMPC and it will be revealed with vista. It will use Intel based hardware I imagine. The media extension news for UMPC leads me to believe that Microsoft will combine the functionality of the ipod with a laptop they will brand their own so they can better control their new solution.
Cellular Phones
Verizon only at first then it will spread to other carriers. This is how MSN messenger mobile first appeared for those who can remember. MSN is already teamed up with MTV and has a new service with Verizon
Web Ware:
Traveling Desktop
They will acquire or design a site like protopage to deliver a user environment that exists anywhere you can login.
http://www.protopage.com/
There are other sites available that allow you to access RSS feeds, open files, and chat using any IM program.
They will utilize another service perhaps similar to Citrix Go To My PC solution for direct file transfer services and other back end solutions.
On line Office Solutions
Microsoft Has:
http://officelive.microsoft.com/
Google has:
A web calendar product
http://www.google.com/calendar
Several web office products
A web version of a web design product
A 3d design product
www.sketchup.com
Google has bought many companies and web applications in this domain while Microsoft is working the kinks out of on mobilizing Office. Google is ahead of the game here. However another player worth mentioning is Open Office, they are working on a web version of their popular alternative software. My Space, Blogger, Meet up, and other social networking sites have proved themselves worthy of incorporation into these solutions as they have become essential to the digital lifestyle. A new combination of these services will arise so investors keep eyes pealed for potential solutions.
Combining the solutions will create a user interface that can be accessed, from the world wide web- if not hosted exclusively on the web. Logging in will link you up instantly to the new MSN solution, OFFICE Live 2.0, Messenger, My Space, MTV, Video on Demand all on the new dynamic probably AJAX based desktop application. This is what Bill Gates was referring to when he said "The future is the Internet"
The Result?
An entire client solution that exists on the web. Google and Microsoft are paving the way here. The UMPC specs back this up. The Via powered UMPCs are horrible CPU solutions and I had no idea why Microsoft supported this hardware until now. The web 2.0 world will require less resources than the off line, on device hosted versions of software.
Delivery System
Microsoft will seek to mimic Google's WiFi efforts. They will want Internet Availability everywhere so that users will be able to connect anywhere. To do this, Microsoft would need the nation's, and then the world's largest Wireless coverage area. I give you their deal (soon to be merger if Verizon stays on top or buy out) with Verizon Wireless. Verizon will deliver wireless broadband to cell phones, UMPCs, and iPod killer devices across the nation. Microsoft will be able to control and limit the ability and create a subscription based network of these devices through this wireless network. This will further enhance the subscription dependency that Microsoft will push.The deciding factor will be Dependant on the success of the new web desktop solution-the best interface will win the people.
Even More Money For Microsoft-The Google Way
The new release will bring digital liquidity to your doorstep- up to date versions of your files and documents and files available to you anywhere, anytime, all for a subscription fee. MSFT will collect user statistics on all users and the collected data will rival if not overcome that of Google. Using the subscription based web 2.0 solution they can deliver user specific advertising- not just based on content but the profile of the user on a far more personal scale than there exists now. Utilizing user information has been a tactic best left for Google until Now.
I personally prefer the school of thought that prefers a mutt to a pure bred; that is I prefer digital variance of products that come together in a custom solution than an inbred solution that only works half the time, is dumber than a box of rocks, and craps on your feet before you finally put it down. These mutt products do not lack in any area. When you try and keep the old ways with decades of the same product, you end up with problems and solutions that don't work. When you mix up the solutions you get strength and adaptability. Google changes very little in the products they buy, keeping them adaptable and yet integrated while Microsoft focuses too much on keeping things integrated not adaptable.
Currently consumers must use a multitude of web 2.0 applications to achieve this level of liquidity, but Microsoft and Google are bringing them all together into one solution. I think Google will release first, to cut into Microsoft's profit.
They delay Vista not just for bugs, awaiting reinforcements
The attack Pattern
1 If by Web
One thing is certain. New web services will surface which is great for the consumer.
The purchase of social networking sites, dynamic applications, file sharing technology and others will become even more rampant.
Note to Investors and tech heads: Find a good web app start-up, get involved and sell out to one of the big boys it is a great time for it.
The Delays Explained:
My Prediction
Microsoft had to compete with new services they did not foresee. In order to effectively market their new windows release and maximize profit they had to re-evaluate how soon they would launch this new system. They have moved up the release of their subscription based services to come out directly following Vista. They would rather wait until after the initial Vista Frenzy and then release Windows Live, But I imagine they will have to release sooner than that at the rate Google is going. Microsoft will be forced to show their hand in order to entice the public into waiting.
If Google releases a web desktop product that combines all the web based software solutions before Vista is released, this will seriously diminish Microsoft's penetration of the new market at first. If Google accomplishes this they will likely give Microsoft a run for its money. The greatest card Google has is that they will probably not even charge for their solution and it will be a more intuitive interface because it is not based on old design. Google makes its money by the knowledge, user statistics, and marketing strategies gained from the exchanges between Google users and solutions. Google will further make a killing by becoming the middle man between iTunes and Windows Media Player.
Investors:
Look for a great middle man alternative to the subscription madness that can speak with both itunes and media player and throw some money at it before Google buys it. Remember Google and the rest of the big boys don't innovate, they buy innovators, if you beat them to the punch you stand to get an exponentially better return on your investment.
Windows Live-A complete subscription service that will include:
Web Desktop Environment-There are many out there and freely available google em!
Messenger, My Space, and Encarta
Office Live-Microsoft's Online Solution
Wireless Access to Their Network- probably via Verizon Wireless and the new generation of wireless broadband technology ( I hope investors have jumped on that band wagon).
deals with Verizon- obligating users to WMA
Implementation of new broadband wireless network
Windows Media Player
MTV Combo-Their new found partner
Creating a solid competitor for itunes?
UPDATE!-It will be the New Windows Media Player and it is already to go and not compatible with itunes which will create a large faction in the world of technology
Google Solution
Calendar
Email
IM
Office
Design Tools
Current Hinderments for Microsoft
Waiting for the UMPC to mature -The Origami Project
These devices will be here this year.
The media player extension- Microsoft has made comments about this yet hasn't released any details.
The UMPC will be released with the new version of media player and MS Vista
Working out Vista Bugs- last on their list of concerns as forcing users away from vista will enhance Microsoft's profits with their new subscription solution. I did not know why they would so blatantly please manufacturers until now. They will make a killing either way. If users don't use Vista, Microsoft will get them through Subscription.
